Relating the Skill of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts to the Synoptic Environment

نویسندگان
چکیده

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Evaluation of long-term trends in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts

The National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center operational tropical cyclone intensity forecasts for the three major northern hemisphere tropical cyclone basins (Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and western North Pacific) for the past two decades are examined for long-term trends. Results show that there has been some marginal improvement in the mean absolute error at 24 and 48 h...

متن کامل

THE INTENSITY FORECASTING EXPERIMENT A NOAA Multiyear Field Program for Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

M OTIVATION FOR IFEX. One of the key activities in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) strategic plan is to improve the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs). The NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC), a part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), is responsible for forecasting TCs in the Atlantic and east Pacific basins, while N...

متن کامل

The Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Technique

T HE DVORAK TECHNIQUE LEGACY. The Dvorak tropical cyclone (TC) intensity estimation technique has been the primary method of monitoring tropical systems for more than three decades. The technique has likely saved tens of thousands of lives in regions where over one billion people are directly affected by TCs (commonly called hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones). The Dvorak technique’s practical a...

متن کامل

2b.6 Relating Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Patterns to Storm Size

During the period 1970-1999, Rappaport (2000) found that almost 60% of TC-related deaths in the U.S. were due to fresh water floods caused by heavy rainfall. To reduce this statistic, it is important to improve the accuracy of TC rainfall forecasts by examining the spatial distribution of the rain shield about the criculation center of the storm. Previous researchers have investigated TC rainfa...

متن کامل

The Effect of the Ocean Eddy on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

It has been widely recognized that the ocean supplies surface heat fluxes and therefore energy to tropical cyclones (TCs). The TC can induce the sea surface temperature (SST) cooling (Price 1981) associated with both the entrainment/mixing and upwelling processes. In turn, the SST cooling near the storm core exerts influence on the TC intensity. This negative feedback to the TC intensity is cle...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Weather and Forecasting

سال: 2013

ISSN: 0882-8156,1520-0434

DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-12-00110.1